Watch out for the bits they don't tell you

Gisela Stuart told us last night on BBC Radio Four's "Any Questions?" that more people voted Leave in the EU referendum than have ever voted for a UK government before. An impressive statistic, and absolutely right. Here are some figures from General Elections over the last 70 years, showing the number of votes that the winning side took:

1945 11.9m votes
1950 13.2m votes
1992 14.0m votes
2005 9.5m votes
2015 11.3m votes

EU Referendum 17.4m votes

Between 1945 and 1992 turnout remained steady but the population grew, increasing the winner's number of votes; but since 1992 turnout has decreased faster than the population has grown, reducing the winner's votes. This means that we're not going to see winning numbers of votes like that of 1992 unless there's a dramatic change in turnout. So the winner's number of votes in the EU referendum was indeed a formidable and startling result.

Still, maybe we should just cast our glance a little more widely, and get a bit of context. How many votes, for example, were cast for Remain? The answer is 16.1m. Golly, that's a formidable and startling result! It means that more people voted Remain in the EU referendum than have ever voted for a UK government before!

Maybe someone should tell Gisela Stuart this. And remind her that cherry-picking cuts both ways.

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